Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 15.628858 18.972743 22.694707 27.121391 32.218381 37.878644 44.614215
2025-05-18 10.507298 14.738088 19.984333 26.863988 35.534545 45.981477 59.390373
2025-05-25 7.484748 11.828867 17.704055 26.009748 37.200763 51.492028 70.819889
2025-06-01 5.701218 10.013527 16.299968 25.762119 39.219027 57.208803 82.536844
2025-06-08 4.244142 8.279501 14.607234 24.711106 39.810325 60.840774 91.515203
2025-06-15 3.555243 7.580021 14.284330 25.511501 42.956542 68.036180 105.612781
2025-06-22 2.746299 6.465788 13.084838 24.746035 43.617628 71.643570 114.790990
2025-06-29 2.365550 6.047186 12.960706 25.641299 46.822926 79.072469 129.754469
2025-07-06 1.754867 5.000152 11.531962 24.135744 46.028990 80.387282 135.736077
2025-07-13 1.534896 4.735973 11.508121 25.049451 49.214477 87.927528 151.338580
2025-07-20 1.330090 4.450479 11.389022 25.755941 52.071186 95.067058 166.612891
2025-07-27 1.146826 4.165785 11.219759 26.332066 54.715787 101.969058 181.779931
2025-08-03 0.956417 3.831567 10.949633 26.805889 57.441462 109.521603 198.947491
2025-08-10 0.753212 3.387722 10.359871 26.589061 58.943931 115.221040 213.597930
2025-08-17 0.562751 2.891432 9.530895 25.743667 59.168146 118.728345 224.810223
2025-08-24 0.438898 2.556914 9.021931 25.498165 60.479744 124.133541 239.341089
2025-08-31 0.316511 2.149875 8.215883 24.455871 60.103440 126.505760 248.845036
2025-09-07 0.269864 2.036434 8.203120 25.249623 63.473244 135.737046 270.371367
2025-09-14 0.197040 1.743824 7.584848 24.490510 63.558443 138.967709 281.662726
2025-09-21 0.169689 1.669593 7.627496 25.378348 67.175418 148.890392 304.994400
2025-09-28 0.112055 1.356618 6.794772 23.885311 65.519404 148.806232 310.633426
2025-10-05 0.096644 1.307059 6.861398 24.791404 69.211996 159.079035 335.139231
2025-10-12 0.081259 1.241785 6.854213 25.492043 72.486144 168.677952 358.745007